The Consequences of Climate Inaction
submitted by Richard Wildermann, a Supporter of the SI Green Space Conservancy
Within the past few decades it has become abundantly apparent that too much carbon in the atmosphere and oceans is a problem. Earth is getting warmer, seas are rising, ecosystems are degrading, and extreme weather events are causing havoc. So far attempts to heal the patient have met with limited and inadequate success.
The complex natural systems that keep our planet healthy and livable are generally resilient and can withstand some abuse, but many have been seriously weakened by the effects of excessive greenhouse gas emissions. If remedial action isn’t taken early on once these injuries begin, some of the major components essential to our planet’s ability to maintain its equilibrium can reach a threshold where critical ecological processes start to break down.
Consider Greenland. The ice sheet that covers 660,000 square miles, or about 80% of Greenland, is almost two miles thick in some places. That’s a lot of frozen water. For millions of years the ice sheet has gone through cycles of shrinking then expanding at rates that can vary significantly depending on various causative factors. Now, due to anthropogenic global warming, it is melting at an alarming rate, faster than it has in over 12,000 years. For some perspective, if the entire Greenland ice sheet melted, sea levels would rise about 24 feet. Fortunately, that’s not likely to happen any time soon. However, if melting continues to accelerate, or just stays at its current pace, major coastal ecosystems essential to marine life would literally drown this century, and millions of people living in low-lying coastal areas would be displaced.
Earth’s natural processes are intrinsically interconnected. When we disrupt one of the planet’s major functions, we inevitably affect others. That’s the case with the melting of Greenland’s immense chunk of ice and the consequential effects on the Atlantic Ocean.
A system of major ocean currents regulates global climate and helps maintain the stability of marine ecosystems by distributing heat around the planet. The Gulf Stream is part of that system. It transports warm water from the Gulf of Mexico north along the East Coast. As Gulf Stream water reaches northern latitudes and merges into the North Atlantic current, it cools, becomes denser, sinks deep into the ocean and then flows south. Research suggests that if Greenland’s ice melts too rapidly an abundance of fresh water could slow the sinking of the cooling seawater, which could slow the clockwise circulating Atlantic current. There are preliminary indications that the current may be slowing already. Scientists are concerned that if global warming continues to accelerate, melting of Greenland’s ice could increase to a point where the Atlantic circulation system slows sufficiently to damage marine ecosystems, alter weather patterns throughout the Northern Hemisphere, and consequently disrupt agriculture and other land uses.
Then there is permafrost. The effects of global warming on permafrost are rarely front-page news, but the global implications are significant. Permafrost is ground that has been frozen for at least two years; in some places on the Arctic tundra it’s been frozen for tens of thousands of years. It can be a few feet or thousands of feet thick. Almost a quarter of the northern hemisphere, about 9 million square miles, is covered with permafrost.
When plants and animals in the Arctic die, they often freeze before decomposing completely. As a result, carbon dioxide and methane, two primary greenhouse gases that are byproducts of decomposition, are not released into the atmosphere. This frozen organic matter can build up, trapping the greenhouse gases underground indefinitely as long as the permafrost remains frozen. There is about twice as much carbon in permafrost as in the atmosphere. But now global warming is thawing permafrost around the world. When that happens, the organic matter that has been frozen for years decomposes and releases carbon dioxide and methane.
Rapidly thawing permafrost is seriously modifying the Arctic tundra and altering the habitat, behavior, distribution, and abundance of countless animals that live or breed there.
Recent studies project that permafrost thawing this century could release enough carbon dioxide and methane to further accelerate global warming. The release of carbon from thawing permafrost is irreversible.
Extreme weather events are highly visible, dramatic manifestations of climate change. Conversely, slowing ocean currents and thawing permafrost are examples of subtle but profound climatic alterations to some of the most critical ecological functions that sustain a habitable Earth. The new administration will not be a champion of climate action, but decisive action is urgently needed to avoid the worst outcomes.
